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(en) Italy, UCADI #169: PEACE (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

Date Sun, 28 May 2023 09:39:46 +0300

Peace has broken out. Under the patronage and with Chinese mediation, talks were held in Beijing between the delegations of the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia which led to the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries, interrupted in 2016 . The rapprochement between the leading states, respectively of the Sunni-Wahhabi component and of the Shiite-theocratic component of Islamism, can profoundly change the policies within the Islamic world and deserves a careful analysis that highlights the various factors that have led the parties to the agreement. ---- The Islamic Republic is going through one of the most difficult phases in its history, undermined by an internal revolt that questions the regime's principles and ideology, denounces its corruption and undermines its social base. The protest movement born in response to the repression that began in September continues even if the Western media have silenced the new brutal attacks against female students fighting for their rights and fail to denounce the use of gas against them by paramilitary groups well known to the regime. Nonetheless, the political and economic causes of the crisis have not disappeared and the regime needs to break the opposition front by pacifying relations with the Sunni component and its clergy, present in the country, who have lined up in support of the protest.
If these reasons are added to those of foreign policy relating to the adoption of converging and agreed policies on energy (extraction and prices of gas and oil) in this delicate phase of the world economy, the common interest is that of giving way to a economic-political area of Islamic countries that faces a common front in a multipolar world of large opposing blocks that is taking shape.
In our opinion, this common goal is precisely the main reason that prompted Saudi Arabia to reach the agreement, but the cost of the ongoing conflicts between the two components of Islamism has weighed and weighs for both countries, conflicts which have benefited Israel and made Anglo-American interests prevail in the control of the Middle East, torn apart by internal wars and divisions.
China has cleverly inserted itself into this accumulation of interests and has made its own promise of investments and the application of its policy of building and making infrastructures available for countries that agree to relate to its economy. On the other hand, China needs constant and privileged access to energy sources and therefore both Iranian and Saudi oil: the gas and oil produced by the two countries are coveted by China, also because Iranian and Saudi production Saudi Arabia takes place in territories closer to the Asian country and allows the construction of oil and gas pipelines which, starting from the fields, will be able to directly serve the Chinese territory.
But there is more: the agreement mends relations within the Islamic world and could potentially lead to the cooling of the ongoing conflicts in this area, starting with that of Yemen, and then moving on to the Lebanese and Syrian areas, loosening the grip on these territories by the United States and Israel, containing Turkish expansionism, a dangerous competitor for the two Islamic countries. Furthermore, in a now multipolar world where, as the war in Ukraine demonstrates, possession and access to nuclear weapons is an essential guarantee of autonomy and security, power - even if in perspective - access to nuclear weapons is considered a guarantee and Iran, it should not be forgotten, is one step away from possessing nuclear weapons and could easily have suitable delivery systems.
These are the possible reasons for the agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia which must be watched carefully and promise unforeseeable, but certainly important consequences on the international arena, capable of undermining the hegemonic project of the United States which at the moment is the main objective of politics Chinese foreign exchange, which, moving with prudence and foresight, aims to create the widest possible conditions of a multipolar world.
This policy is demonstrated by the strengthening of the BRICS area of which China is a part and in which it plays an important role.
The importance and consequences of the success of this strategy are unequivocal and reside in the strength of the countries that are part of the BRICS which all abstained from voting on Russia's motion to condemn the war in Ukraine and together hold 40% of GDP and world trade.

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