A-Infos (en) via libre: Analysis of the situation in Colombia for 2022 (ca, de, it, pt, tr)[machine translation]

In this paper, an analysis of the socio-political situation in Colombia for 2022 
is developed from the perspective of the Grupo Libertario Vía Libre. To this end, 
some general trends in terms of public health, economy and population movements 
are outlined first, to continue in the second term with the socio-political 
characteristics that include criteria such as the management of the national 
government, the electoral situation, the conflict armed and human rights 
violations. Finally and thirdly, we address the popular movements, with the 
general social movements, as well as workers, peasants, indigenous, student, 
civic, women and sexual dissidence, environmental and other social sectors.

General trends

In terms of public health, the country continued to be strongly affected by the 
COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, by the end of 2021, when the Omicron variant began to be 
the dominant one in the territory, 5,157,440 verified accumulated cases of the 
new coronavirus were registered according to the Google database, in addition to 
the unfortunate figure of 129,942 deaths in total. This at a time when it was 
passing through one of the lowest points of a plateau, a situation that quickly 
began with the beginning of a fourth wave of cases, which maintained a high 
number of infections although fewer deaths.

The above figures represented a cumulative index up to December 31 of 2,579.65 
deaths per million inhabitants in the country according to Datosmacro, as well as 
the average 10,754 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days of the year. 
At the time, the comparatively low figure of 29,564,153 coronavirus tests carried 
out according to the Google database was accumulated.

In terms of the impact of the national vaccination plan developed for just over 
300 days, a total of 64,690,489 vaccines were administered in the year, which 
resulted in 28,323,837 people fully vaccinated and 38,353,097 people with at 
least one dose, in addition of a number of 3,324,832 people with booster doses 
according to the John Hopkins University database. These raw numbers, however, 
revealed a comparatively low vaccination percentage at the regional level, with 
57% of the population fully vaccinated, 78% with at least one dose, and 6.7% with 
booster doses.

On the other hand, in economic matters, the country experienced a notorious 
growth of 9.7% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) according to the Ministry of 
Finance, one of the largest percentages in the region. This recovery, greater 
than expected, began in February 2021 and had a significant increase since April, 
when the economic reopening without health care was decided. This is largely 
explained by the increase in domestic consumption of households, as well as the 
growth of items such as commerce and industry.

At the same time, a comparatively high inflation of 5.62% was recorded according 
to the National Department of Statistics (DANE), which is almost double the goal 
set by the Central Bank. What represents the largest increase in prices in five 
years, was noted above all in the price of food and beverages, which were 
adjusted above 17.23%, as well as transportation, which rose by 5.69%, items 
whose increases especially affect popular sectors. Additionally, inflation for 
poor families was estimated at 6.85% according to the same source, 50% higher 
than that experienced by rich families in the same period.

On the other hand, a high unemployment of 13.7% and 3.35 million people was 
registered in the year according to DANE. This figure, which represents a slight 
decrease compared to the previous year, does not detract from a deep sexual 
inequality of work, since men faced unemployment of 10.6% while women did so at 
18.1%, more than double, according to the same source. At the regional level, the 
highest concentrations of unemployed occurred in the intermediate cities of 
Quibdó, Cúcuta and Riohacha, with percentages above 19%, while the national 
capital remained at 16%.

Likewise, monetary poverty is around an estimated 40% of the population and 
21,500,000 people according to Fedesarrollo, which represents a slight drop 
compared to the peak reached during the crisis last year. The enormous poverty, 
which is aggravated above all in rural areas, was not greatly affected by the 
government's policies to expand targeted minimum subsidies, since the phenomenon 
is related above all to high unemployment, the increase in inflation and low wages.

In another aspect, until November 2021, a huge external debt was registered, 
which represents 167,859 million dollars and 53.1% of GDP according to the Banco 
de la República, including a percentage of 31.7% of public debt and 21.3 % of 
private debt. This represented a minimal reduction compared to the previous year, 
although in fact this usurious debt grew strongly in the second half of the year 
due to new loans acquired by government authorities.

In another indicator, a fiscal deficit of 7.1% of the total GDP and 63.8% of the 
GDP of the central national government was registered, according to the Ministry 
of Finance, which represents a slight reduction compared to the previous year. 
The reduction is explained by a partial increase in tax revenues, mainly due to 
the economic reopening, which, however, is limited by the parallel increase in 
speculative interest on debts.

On the other hand, the gap in the State's trade balance seems to have increased, 
with a deficit of 6,135 million dollars in the fourth quarter of the year 
according to the Bank of the Republic, with exports concentrated in primary goods 
with 19,972 million dollars. dollars and imports concentrated in manufactured 
goods of 26,107 million dollars according to the same source, a negative balance 
that almost triples the records of last year.

In terms of energy mining extraction, which represents 45.7% of the country's 
total exports in 2021, a production of 736,356 barrels of oil per day was 
recorded, which represents a decrease of 5.7% and the lowest number in 13 years , 
decrease in part explained by a combination of electrical and mechanical failures 
affected by the armed conflict. On the other hand, natural gas production reached 
10.87 million cubic feet, an increase of close to 2% with the highest figure in 
five years. In parallel, there was an increase in coal production with an 
estimated 65 million tons extracted in the year, as well as a gross increase of 
16% and 10.7 million tons according to the employers' association Fenalcarbón, in 
a sector that benefited from the global rise in prices,

Regarding the extraction of agricultural products that represent 16.4% of the 
country's exports in 2021, 12.6 million bags of green coffee were produced (of 
the total 12.4 million of them and 98.4% for export), a significant reduction of 
9% compared to the previous year, mainly explained by bad weather conditions. In 
the banana sector, where the country is fourth in the world, the production of 
84.5 million boxes for export was achieved and an estimated profit of 770 million 
dollars according to DANE, indicators that, however, show a significant drop 
compared to 2020 In the flower sector, 80% concentrated in the US market, sales 
reached 1,727 million dollars, an increase of 22.4% compared to the previous year,

On the other hand, the country's industrial production index grew by 10.3%, 
driven by the growth of the manufacturing industry, which expanded by 15.9% 
according to DANE, although growth in infrastructure items such as electricity 
and gas supply was also important. , as well as water distribution treatment. In 
the employed personnel of the manufacturing sector, the manufacture of garments, 
the manufacture of metal products, the manufacture of beverages and the 
production of food grew especially. Meanwhile, the construction sector managed to 
move 43.6 billion pesos, with the sale of an estimated 239,000 housing units 
according to the Camacol employers' association, the largest record in recent 
history, in addition to registering 10.2 million square meters built and 6.5 
million tons of cement shipped in the year.

In terms of population, the country, which is the main destination of Venezuelan 
migration due to its geographical proximity, registered 1,824,390 migrants from 
this country according to the R4V platform, an accumulation that continues to 
grow, despite the counter-trend of return that occurred during the first months 
of the pandemic. This is a population in mostly irregular conditions, for which 
the Colombian government has sought to adopt a Temporary Protection Statute 
belatedly, exposed to a very high unemployment of 48% and informality with only 
22% of employees registering a labor contract. formal according to Cende.

On the other hand, Colombia continues to consolidate itself as a dangerous 
transit point for migrants heading to North America, with more than 106,838 
migrants transiting the country this year according to Migración Colombia, the 
majority in the second half of the year when it reached records of more than 
1,000 daily migrants to the country. This migrant population, 87% Haitian from 
other South American countries, but also Caribbean, African and Asian. Its rapid 
increase has generated dramatic situations in small and impoverished populations 
such as Necoclí in the Pacific, where the concentration of up to 23,000 refugees 
without better subsistence conditions occurred in August and September.

Socio-political characteristics

In political matters, in 2021 the third year of the government of former senator 
and adviser to the commercial bank Iván Duque of the right-wing Democratic Center 
party and the Uribista, conservative and evangelical coalition in the executive 
closed. Duque's is the most unpopular government in recent history, with 71% 
disapproval in the year according to Invamer, which in April reached 76% and 
among young people it exceeded 84%. Another survey in May by Cifra y Concepts 
revealed that among young people in the main cities, 91% expressed their distrust 
of the government and 93% of the Senate.

In the midst of official impunity and the complicit support of the majority of 
the big business press, the government managed to block several of the 
investigations that were being carried out for fraud in the 2018 elections, both 
that of the "Political Ñeñe" that linked the drug trafficker Ñeñe Hernández with 
the illegal financing of the campaign and the buying of votes, such as that of 
Aida Merlano, a former senator of the Conservative Party and a fugitive from 
justice, involved in multiple corruption networks and also in massive vote 
buying. At the same time, its strategy of impunity advances, coordinated with the 
Attorney General's Office of Francisco Barbosa, former presidential secretary, 
against its political leader, former President Álvaro Uribe, who, however, has 
had less luck, due to the large amount of evidence accumulated against him. per 
purchase,

In political matters, the government unsuccessfully confronted the corruption 
scandal of the Minister of Communications Karen Abudinen, political quota of the 
Char house and former presidential advisor to Duque, due to irregularities in the 
Populated Centers project that led to the theft of more than 70 billion dollars. 
pesos from the treasury, which led to his resignation in September, despite the 
support given him by the government majority in the Senate.

At the time, the government maintained its majority in the Congress of the 
Republic, under the presidency of the politician Juan Diego Gómez of the 
Conservative Party in the Senate and the rancher Jennifer Arias of the Democratic 
Center in the House of Representatives. In its hegemony, the government manages 
to articulate an informal legislative coalition, which adds the closed defenders 
of the government that accumulate 52 representatives of the Democratic Center, 
the Conservative Party, the U Party, MIRA and Colombia Justa-Libres and the 
so-called independent parties, key in his election in the second round, which 
accumulate 30 representatives and frequently support him as the Radical Change 
Party and the Liberal Party. This majority allowed him the support of the 
Minister of Defense, the politician Diego Molano,

At the level of regional power, there was a strong attrition of the independent 
mayorships of the academic Claudia López of the Green Party in Bogotá, the 
businessman Daniel Quintero of an independent sector in Medellín, the politician 
Jorge Iván Ospina also of the Green Party in Cali and in lesser measure of Jaime 
Pumarejo of the Radical Change Party of the char house in Barranquilla, in the 
midst of the so-called crisis of urban insecurity, exploited by the big business 
press.

In electoral terms, the dynamic campaign for the congress and the presidency of 
2022 is announced, marked by the continuity of political polarization, the strong 
rejection of Duque's management and Uribism, and the centrality of the opposition 
figure of the center presidential candidate left Gustavo Petro. On the stage 
three great electoral coalitions are formed, the right wing led by Cambio 
Radical, the U, the Conservative Party and the evangelicals, the center led by 
the Green Party and the independent sectors and the left of the Historical Pact 
led by Colombia Humana and the Democratic Pole, at a time of great dispersion of 
presidential candidacies with more than 16 candidates.

In terms of the armed conflict, the country is experiencing a significant 
increase in political violence, which led to 1,813 murders by illegal armed 
actors in the year, as well as 870 death threats, 94 acts of forced confinement 
according to Indepaz, in addition to 168 cases of disappearance. forced according 
to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). In addition, there were 
96 massacres with 335 victims during the year according to the same source, 
especially concentrated in Antioquia, which obtained the highest lethal records, 
Cauca, Valle del Cauca, Nariño and Caquetá.

The escalation of the conflict led to 2021, which has become the most violent 
year since the signing of the 2016 peace agreement with 884 violations of 
international humanitarian law according to the Red Cross. The war was expressed 
regionally in Arauca where there were two waves of clashes between the Venezuelan 
Guard, the National Liberation Army (ELN), the Second Marquetalia and the 
dissidents of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) led by Gentil 
Duarte, who led to massive population displacements and confinements. Various 
confrontations also took place in the departments of Choco due to clashes between 
the ELN and the AGC, and in Cauca, Nariño and Putumayo due to clashes between 
Duarte's dissidents and the Second Marquetalia and the ELN.

In the same terrain, military coups were carried out by the State, with events 
such as the capture by the Armed Forces of Dairo Antonio Úsuga "Otoniel", leader 
of the Gaitanista Self-Defense Forces (AGC) in October, as well as the death 
after a bombing in the same month in Choco by Ángel Padilla "Fabián", commander 
of the ELN. In addition, the deaths of Hernán Darío Velásquez "El Paisa", Henry 
Castellanos "Romaña" and Seuxis Hernández "Jesús Santrich", historical commanders 
of the Second Marquetalia, occurred in December, in apparent combats with rival 
sectors of the FARC dissidents, in the border with Venezuela.

In terms of human rights, the murder of 171 social leaders and 48 former members 
of the FARC according to Indepaz, concentrated mainly in the Pacific region of 
Cauca, epicenter of violence, Antioquia, Nariño, Valle del Cauca and Choco. The 
murders hit especially the indigenous sectors, the most victimized, in addition 
to sectors such as civic, communal, peasant and Afro-descendant. This sad figure, 
however, represents a significant reduction compared to the last period and the 
peak of last year, which does not detract from the 1,286 social leaders 
assassinated since the signing of the peace agreements in 2016 according to Indepaz.

On the other hand, a large increase in forced displacement was recorded in the 
country, with 82,846 displaced persons and an increase of 169% compared to 2020 
according to Codhes, with the occurrence of 167 acts of mass displacement, which 
were concentrated in the departments of Nariño , which concentrates the largest 
number of displaced people, Antioquia, Choco and Cauca, a particularly serious 
phenomenon for the black and indigenous population.

popular movements

In social matters, the central event of the year was the social outbreak that 
began after the national strike on April 28. The protest that combined 
mobilization and street blockades was strong in the main cities of the country 
and had as its axis the south west and especially the city of Cali and its 
metropolitan area. It lasted for at least three months, with very high levels of 
activity in May, and lower levels in June and July. For the month of May, a 
survey by the newspaper El Tiempo revealed that 63% of the young people consulted 
in the main cities of the country participated in the protests and 84% felt 
represented by the movement. The repression against the outbreak left a record of 
80 fatal victims of state and para-state repression, in addition to 83 victims of 
eye violence and 1.

In terms of workers' struggles, the extensive protests with the occupation of 
facilities of Ecopetrol workers in Barranca, Cantagallo and Yondó in the months 
of September and December against labor outsourcing were central. Also relevant 
were the strikes by the workers of the Centelsa cable company in Cali in February 
due to their collective agreement, and the partial strikes by the Notary and 
Registry workers in the second half of the year against a reform without 
consultation of the entity.

Likewise, an interesting cycle of workers' mobilization was presented in October 
and November, as shown by the mobilizations of workers in the kitchen area of the 
Cartagena Refinery in October in rejection of possible dismissals, as well as the 
hunger strike of miners from Prodeco del Terminate in the months of February and 
October against dismissals. A little later, there was the mobilization of the 
workers of the Essmar aqueduct company in Santa Marta in November against the 
intervention of the company by the national government and of the employees of 
the Taghleff plastics company in Mamonal the same month, against the judicial 
persecution to which union activists have been subjected. In addition, there were 
regional strikes by state teachers in Antioquia, Valle, Tolima and Risaralda in 
November,

Within the framework of the national strike, the unequal strike in solidarity 
with the national strike of nearly a month of public school teachers, which 
lasted between the end of April and May, and in some institutions lasted until 
June, was key. The permanent assembly of the women workers of Ecopetrol at the 
Barrancabermeja Refinery in May due to biosafety measures and of the workers of 
the Termo Candelaria de Mamonal company in June due to increased hiring of local 
residents was also key. Important legal advances were also presented, such as 
those achieved by the glass workers in their lawsuit against the collective labor 
agreements imposed by the companies and for the re-admission of the pilots fired 
from Avianca after the 2017 strike.

In the peasant movement, the participation of this sector was central in the 
dynamics of the social outbreak and the development of mobilizations of rural 
sectors in Bolívar, Arauca, Casanare, Nariño, Guaviare, Putumayo, Cauca, Tolima 
and Huila. In addition, strong protests took place in February, May and November 
in Anorí in Antioquia and Iscandúe in Nariño, due to the tension between the 
coca-growing population and the groups of the armed forces in charge of forced 
eradication, in the midst of the State's systematic non-compliance with policies 
of voluntary substitution and the search for the re-implementation of the 
dangerous aerial spraying of crops by the government.

In the indigenous movement, the Indigenous Minga was developed, energized by the 
Regional Indigenous Council of Cauca (CRIC), which brings together the Nasa, 
Misak, Totoroe, and Yanacona peoples, among others, with the minga going inland 
in the department of Cauca in April, as well as the participation of delegations 
from these organizations in the social protests in Cali in May and the new 
protests in December against the violence in their territories. On the other 
hand, the mobilization of the Misak people grouped in the Indigenous Authorities 
of the Southwest (AISO) in Bogotá in May, which demolished various statues and 
colonial symbols with popular support, gained great visibility.

In the student movement, the central fact was the 2-month strike that was 
experienced in 18 public universities between the months of May and June in 
solidarity with the social outbreak, which lasted another month in institutions 
such as Unisucre. Also relevant was the strike at the Pedagogical and 
Technological University (UPTC) of Tunja between June and August due to budget, 
which came out with a partial agreement.

In the civic movement, there was a hunger strike by young people from La Guajira 
between September and October for social investment in the department, which also 
included a mobilization in the capital, as well as a protest by the inhabitants 
of Sotaquirá in Boyacá in July in demand for the completion of the construction 
of a public school in the area. In other social sectors, there was also a hunger 
strike by detainees in La Picota prison in August against the poor conditions of 
the prison's food and health services.

In the women's movement, the important participation in the traditional 
mobilizations of March 8 and November 25 was maintained, while the strength of 
the mobilizations for the right to abortion grew around September 28 and 
accompanying the legal demand before the Constitutional Court for the 
legalization of this therapeutic practice. In the movement of sexual dissidents, 
there were great days of mobilization for the day of pride, as well as a growth 
in the trans marches also in June.

In the environmental movement, the protests of fishermen and inhabitants of 
Puerto Wilches were registered in February and March against the fracking pilot, 
as well as the June 5 call for the partial call for the national environmental 
strike, small but with several points of mobilization. Likewise, the protest of 
peasants from El Cocuy took place in July against a mining exploitation project 
in the national park of that region.

Also among these diverse sectors, the protest was presented in September by the 
informal miners of Caucasia, after the murder in Nechí of a miner in the 
confrontations as a result of the Army and Police operations against this 
activity. On the other hand, the Choco civic and mining strike took place for 11 
days in October against government persecution of this activity, as well as a 
protest by the artisanal miners of Borbur for the possibility of exploiting the 
emerald mines given in concession to the company. Fura Gems. In addition, the 
participation of informal miners in the mobilization of May 11 within the 
framework of the social outbreak is reviewed.

In summary, this was a 2021 marked by the enormous weight of the Covid-19 
pandemic, a partial recovery of the economy, the strong crisis of legitimacy of 
the Duque government, the resurgence of the armed conflict and human rights 
violations, as well as by the historic social outbreak of April 28 and multiple 
workers' and popular struggles.

Up those who fight!

Freeway Libertarian Group

https://grupovialibre.org/2022/04/09/analisis-de-coyuntura-de-colombia-para-2022
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