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(en) avtonom: Russia and China: what is common? by - Michael Shraibman [machine translation]

Date Sun, 4 Aug 2019 09:38:57 +0300

A modern sociologist, a specialist in macro-sociology, Georgy Derlugyan, notes that the government is willing to negotiate with moderate opposition and / or undertakes economic reforms beneficial to a significant part of society when it feels strong fear. Usually, such fear is caused by unpredictable ultra-radical groups that are gaining strength, those with whom it is obviously impossible to reach an agreement. In such conditions, the ruling bureaucracy sometimes becomes interested in negotiations with moderate forces representing a certain part of society and in reforms aimed at cutting the ground from under the feet of the radicals. ---- The power only makes the society angry by arrest and searches of opposition and independent candidates. This is the second step, after they are denied registration, which will cause an increase in irritation and, possibly, an increase in the number of protesters. On the other hand, opposition candidates are trying to frighten the authorities by saying that if they are unconditional supporters of peaceful actions, arrested or driven out of the square, some non-peaceful people will come after them. But this is fake. There are currently no peace.

This could work (and to some extent worked, albeit with great creak) under the tsarist regime, therefore the liberal democrats - the Cadets and others. Were allowed to vote in the Duma, where they even at some point became the majority along with other opposition groups . Such was the reality of the events of 1905-1907. But besides the liberal Democrats - the Cadets, there were also AKP (Social Revolutionaries) and the RSDLP (Social Democrats) - practical ones who were preparing an uprising, in the name, oddly enough, of bourgeois democracy (at least during the first stage of the struggle), and in the back the anarchists and maximalist Socialist-Revolutionaries breathed - advocates of the social revolution, labor self-government in factories, and direct violence against business in the process of selecting these factories. Now there is nothing like this. I do not see in the modern Russian society any analogues of the Social Revolutionaries, the RSDLP and, moreover,https: //avtonom.org/author_columns/chto-takoe-trudovaya-sindikalnaya-res ... . However, I may not know something, but even if somewhere there are 10 real or potential Social Revolutionaries, 7 Social-Democratic revolutionaries, and 5 anarchists, this does not do the weather. And then - why scare? Do not be frightened by what is not. Radical nationalists? They are clearly very weak.

If we take another famous example already from modern history - the economic reforms in China (PRC), then we will see a somewhat similar picture there. The Communist Party, which ruled the country arbitrarily, did not see any reason to share anything until the late 1970s. Party state bureaucracy ruled not only the army and the police. She owned all the factories and state agrarian enterprises (they were called "communes") in the village, all cultivated land. The whole mass of the working population of billion-dollar China worked for the party-state at these factories and agricultural enterprises and lived very poorly. But in 1976 there was a large protest action of workers in Tiananmen Square in Beijing. Thousands of workers, cursing the party and its leader Mao Zedong, entered into a fierce fight with the police. Wounded appeared on both sides. The magnitude and rigidity of the working onset were such that"The secret reports of the state security were alarmed: the workers made weapons at the factories. Extra-plan items - knives, lances, traditional swords, nunchak. Chinese proletariat most actively prepared the changes." http: //vkrizis.ru/analiz/za-rabochee-delo-on-na-ploshhad-ushyol/? fbclid = ...A little later, the peasant revolts began. The peasants began to take land from the state ("communes") and divide them between their families. They demanded to give them the right to independently dispose of the products of labor on these lands, threatening the party leaders with violence. Began violent clashes in the village. Although the party used troops to suppress protests, the fear of the country's leadership has reached its limit. The history of China knows many mighty peasant uprisings that overthrew the royal dynasty and seized the land. Only after this, the country's leadership, led by Deng Xiao Ping, as noted by Russian-American researcher Alexander Pantsov, agreed to transfer the land to the peasants so that they could grow food there and sell surplus. The country began economic reforms over time, improved the lives of a large part of the workers of the city and village. But in Russia at the present time there are no powerful speeches of workers of similar magnitude.

Of course, it is impossible to retain power on violence alone, but there is an amendment. Eternal this can not be. But for many years, this can be done. For example, in Iran and Venezuela, local unpopular regimes have quite successfully suppressed protests for many years through violence. Therefore, at present, there is no scenario in which the Russian democratic opposition could take power.

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