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(en) wsm.ie: All Polls shows Yes lead for Repeal but it could still be close if previous patterns hold
Date
Wed, 23 May 2018 09:31:05 +0300
Two new opinions polls were out Sunday morning on next Fridays referendum to remove the
hated 8th amendment to the constitution that equates the life of a woman with that of a
foetus. Both this mornings polls are good news for the Yes to Repeal campaign with an
increased Yes vote since the same companies' previous polls. ---- The Red C poll shows a
3% increase for Yes, 1% increase for No since their last poll. ---- The B&A poll shows a
5% increase for Yes to 52% with 5% fall for No to 24%. With Don't Knows excluded, this is
63% Yes 32% No. ---- The MRBI poll published by the Irish Times on Thursday wasn't so
good, it had a 5% drop for Yes in comparison with their previous polls, suggesting a very
much tighter 58% Yes, 42% No vote. ---- What is important when looking at these polls if
not the date they were published but rather the dates data was collected over. All 3 polls
have collecting periods overlap (see graphic). The MRBI was collected over a short 2-day
period 14/15 May and has the worst result for Together for Yes . The B&A poll was
collected over a long 12 day period and appears to have the best result for Yes. The Red C
poll was collected over 6 days and with don't knows excluded has the same result at the
B&A one.
As the polls overlap we have to consider that all three are correct even though the
numbers differ. B&A and RedC are similar when Don't Knows are excluded but MRBI is
radically worse for Yes. As MRBI collected towards the end of the period it MIGHT be
showing a sudden No swing although we consider this unlikely. Its more likely that the
difference reflects long standing differences in polling methodology.
When we adjust each polling companies results by how far out that company was on the 2015
Marriage Equality referendum vote its the Red C poll that gives Yes a clear win, the other
two would be too close to call. Why?
With their weekend before Marriage Equality poll B&A had
Yes 63
No 26
Don't Know 11
BUT result was
Yes 62
No 38
So ALL B&A Don't Know went to No in that Marriage Equality referendum and so did some yes
votes. If the same happened on May 25th the Yes would only have 51%, way too close to call.
https://www.wsm.ie/c/repeal-8th-warning-marriage-equality-poll-comparison
This isn't intended as a prediction, just an illustration that Don't Knows might break
very heavily for NO and in that case 2 of these 3 polls say its still too close to call
while just one is a Yes win.
In other words while the polls are good news for Yes its all still to play for in the
final few days. At this stage getting out the Yes vote is going to be central as in a
close result who votes could decide it. eg Over 65s are most likely to vote and are
heavily No, this age group was key to Brexit passing in the UK.
There remains a sharp urban rural divide so a sunny day in the west and heavy rain in
Dublin could have a big impact. If your a Yes vote make sure you actually vote and spend
the week talking to other Yes voters encouraging them out too. We can win this but its not
yet won.
Here are our 8 reasons we are voting Yes to Repeal the hated 8th
https://www.wsm.ie/c/8-reasons-vote-yes-to-repeal
17 May - Its just over a week before Ireland will have a referendum to remove the clause
in the constitution the equates the life of a women with that of a foetus. The Irish
Times/MRBI have published a poll showing Yes has a 16 point lead over No with one week to
go to the referendum. The detail of the poll also reveals a surprisingly large soft No
vote still exists. 22-35% of No voters should be voting Yes according to their opinions on
wanting more abortion access for women.
But we also continue to warn that if a similar last minute drop in support fort Yes
happened as occurred with the Marriage Equality referendum the strong lead in this poll
would reduce so that the vote was too close to call. In other words there should be no
room for complacency, its likely every vote will count as happened with the 1995 divorce
referendum which pass with a tiny margin of 50.28% Yes, equivalent to a couple of votes
per ballot box.
No still has a significant soft vote with;
A. 35% of No voters feel access to abortion up to 12 weeks on request is a reasonable
compromise. Presumably because they know proving rape cannot be made conditional on
accessing abortion - trial take weeks, not months and conviction rates are low. The recent
Belfast trial is probably in many peoples minds. But 12 weeks on request can't happen
without a Yes vote to Repeal, its completely impossible with the 8th in place.
B. 22% of No voters say the law needs to change to recognise a women's right to choose to
have an abortion. This is a VERY soft No indeed as clearly Repeal the 8th has to happen to
make this possible, there is no way this 22% should, be voting No while holding this opinion.
These detailed figures are available here https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll
Both these large soft No blocs suggest that if people fully understood the referendum and
the implications of a No vote as a continuation of cruel regime of the 8th then there
should be at least a 10% switch from No to Yes with the referendum then passing 63% Yes to
39% No. This may explain why No has fallen back on distrust, fear and confusion messaging
along with trying to make referendum campaign as toxic as possible. They need not to allow
the 22% to 35% soft No voters to consider the implications of a No victory.
Overall the Irish Times / MRBI poll has responses as follows
44 Yes
32 No
17 Don't Know
5 Won't Vote
2 Refused to say
The poll was collected Monday & Tuesday of this week, the controversial Clare Burns Live
shows which has a strong No bias in speaker section and time was broadcast Monday night so
No might have expected a much stronger showing in this poll as they were very loudly
declaring a victory after than broadcast. This poll however shows no significant change in
comparison with the KMB poll taken a couple of weeks beforehand.
Dublin remains strongly Repeal with Ulster/Connacht which has seen large scale suppression
(tearing down) of Yes posters being the weakest, close to 50:50. It's also the smallest
regional bloc of voters.
The detail of the poll also reveals that the Urban V Rural divide has close a lot during
the campaign, according to this poll
Rural V Urban
Yes 39% V 46%
No 36% V 30%
Age remains the biggest dividing line, over 65s are the only group strongly intending to
vote No
18 to 24 V 65+
Yes 52% V 30%
No 27% V 47%
Older voters won it for both Trump & Brexit, will the same happen here and the same sense
of a betrayal of grand children's futures by their own grand parents - in this case where
ether consequences don't even directly effect them? Talk kindly to your grandparents about
this.
With this question its interesting that with the 65+ and 18-24 age groups the Don't Knows
lean towards No strongly but all the in between age groups lean towards Yes. With the 65+
we can say this is the influence of clerical ideology over a life time. With the 18-24
this is the group most likely to see the enormous No spend on misleading online adverts
and which doesn't necessarily have the life experience to measure this against. In terms
of voter mobilisation it may be that No's early contempt towards younger (student) voters
may hurt them here.
The IT/MRBI last polled in April, this is the shift between their April poll and this one
April->This poll
Yes 47->44
No 28 ->32
DK 20->17
Won't vote 3->5
Won't say 1->2
It's unusual for Won't vote and Won't say figures to rise in the course of a referendum.
This very much reflects the hate and fear messaging of the No campaign along with the
widespread attempts to sow confusion and doubt. It's clearly scared some intending voters
from voting and made others fearful of speaking. This also happened in 1983 leading to a
tiny turnout of 53% on the day. No have been busy in the last few days setting the ground
for declaring the referendum to be a fix, a low turnout would also help them in that
respect so its useful to be aware that they are trying to engineer a low turnout. At times
this has been blatant, as with releasing press releases saying colleges should not close
on the 25th to allow students to vote.
A lot of people are very sure of how they will vote, this is obviously good for Yes and
bad for No as it suggests the pool of voters who can be shifted is not large. Yes has very
much larger canvass teams so they are much more likely to be able to sway this pool in the
final week.
65% never change
22% extremely unlikely
9% unlikely but open
4% possibly
We presume there will be at least another 2 polls out in next few days if all major
polling companies are polling. The MRBI 'weekend before' poll was closest to being correct
for the Marriage Equality Referendum result, more on this important comparison for the
previous polls and how we do this calculation
That said in bad news for No and going somewhat against our Marriage Equality ref
comparison more Don't Knows are leaning to Yes than No
Lean Yes 31%
Lean No 24%
Not leaning 44%
But if we assume all No leaning Don't Knows become No votes this poll becomes one very
close to what happened with MRBI and their Marriage Equality referendum polling, bringing
us back towards a too close to call result. Again we say this is a warning and not as a
prediction of actual outcome, there is far more for the No campaign to sweat over in this
poll which is why they are preparing the ground for their defeat and claims of a rigged
referendum.
Canvassing and leafletting for Yes is going to have a massive impact in the remaining week
of campaigning. So too will talking to your friends, workmates and relatives. Divorce
passed in 1995 by a tiny fraction and its looking like it could be very close for Repeal
so do have those conversations. No want a low turnout, we want a high one so vote early on
the 25th, and post to social media that you have done so to encourage others to do likewise.
20th April - Three additional opinion polls this April have shown that the anti-choice
campaign has failed to reduce the number of people intending to repeal the 8th referendum
at all, despite 3 months of frantic campaigning that has involved an enormous spend on
misleading billboards, posters, online ads and glossy colour leaflets. With the Together
for Yes campaign only gearing up last week this means the No may may well decrease between
now and the referendum. However as our reports and analysis of these poles show the
pro-choice Yes campaign cannot be complacent.
Two of these polls appeared on 28th and 29th April, the Daily Mail one had a very loaded
to the No side question, the Red C seems to continue to over estimate the Yes relative to
other polls.
The Red C poll in Sunday Business Post 29th April confirms little change against their
previous poll since campaigns started in February.
No vote static at 26%,
Yes vote at 53% down 3% since last their poll but 3% is margin of error.
Don't Know up 3 to 19%
Won't vote static at 2%
The image above shows all 6 polls and demonstrate that despite Save the 8th & Love Both No
campaigns spend of millions the No vote has not increase at all.
With Don't Know excluded that Sunday Business Post / Red C poll has
68% Yes
32% No
Note this is a higher Yes than that which other companies are finding but the Yes to No
ratio has remained close to 2:1 in all polls, all variation appears to be down to the
company polling with Red C polling yes the highest.
But please also read our we explanation of why Yes needs not to get complacent on the
basis of our adjustment of polling figures on the basis of previous referendums and in
particular Marriage Equality.
Sunday 22nd April saw the appearance of yet another opinion poll of the referendum to
repeal the anti-choice amendment added to the constitution in 1983. As with all 5 opinion
polls that have appeared during the campaign it showed little change at the national
level, the strong lead for Yes remains. But when the full data was published Monday we had
a look and discovered some interesting trends within it.
The Sunday Times teased everyone Saturday night with tweet pointing out the Dublin Yes had
fallen 8%. They probably a sold a good few papers the next day off of it but in doing so
they buried the lead that otherwise no significant change in voting intentions had
occurred in comparison with their previous polls.
You can view this Behaviour & Attitudes poll reported in the Sunday Times. In this poll
928 people were questioned meaning the margin of error is 3.3% error. Once that is taken
into account we see the tiny changes in voting intentions are not significant despite what
the Save 8th and Love Both spokes people initially tried to claim.
People were also asked if they supported unrestricted access to abortion in the first 12
weeks of preganancy, the period in which the abortion pill can be used. Despite the No
campaigns huge huge spend on misleading posters, billboards, online ads & leaflets there
was no impact on voter attitudes on this question. There is certainly an argument that the
Save the 8th campaign being caught multiple times with its dirty tricks campaign at the
start of the campaign rightly did permanent credibility damage to the No side. There was
also no change in attitudes to allowing abortion to protect womens health & where there is
fatal foetal abnormality detected.
This 3rd B&A/ST poll was done from 15-17th April . This was right at the end of the period
when only Vote No posters were up, and in considerable numbers. Since then the Together
for Yes & other Repeal the 8th posters are appearing in increasing numbers. The failure of
the anti-choice organisations to erode ‘soft Yes' votes when they were the most prominent
voice by far is a serious setback for them. Now the question is whether the ‘soft No' vote
will be eroded by arguments for compassion & protection of health as the referendum
approaches in 5 weeks.
‘Soft No' votes can be understood as No voters who also want to protect womens health &
allow abortion for fatal foetal abnormalities. Doing either however requires Repeal. The
No campaign is in trouble here, this B&A poll on page 17 shows 33% of No voters want
abortion in such cases & 11% don't know. In this context 44% of the No could be won to Yes
by the Together for Yes campaign as it unfolds.
Pages 16+17 of this B&A poll shows that the ‘Soft Yes' is proportionately small, less than
half as a proportion than the ‘Soft No' so even apart from their failure to date the
anti-choice campaigns are in a weak position. To illustrate
For voters who intend to vote Yes to repeal some 12% are against unrestricted access to 12
weeks and 8% don't know, so you could say 20% of the Yes vote was soft. On the allowing
access to abortion in cases of fatal foetal abnormality and where the persons health is
threatened some 9% of Yes voters are against and 5% don't know. This is a 13% ‘soft' vote
Here its worth noting that although the 3 months of (mostly No) campaign have not effected
voting intentions on repeal pages 16 & 17 does show both Yes and No soft votes have
reduced between February & April polling, presumably as people educate themselves on these
topics.
Soft Yes i.e. against 12 weeks fell from 21% of Yes to 14%
Soft No i.e. for health & FFA fell from 49% of No to 44%
So as an exercise if we take soft votes into account the unrealistic worst cases, assuming
all Don't Knows go against them as
Yes falls to 40% if all ‘soft yes' lost
No falls to 16% if all ‘soft no' lost
This sort of complete loss is very unlikely but this exercise demonstrates what a bad
situation the anti-choice campaigns are in.
When you add the 2 other polls in the 3 month campaign period in (see image in 1st
comment) and exclude Don't Knows we see some differences probably due to different MRBI
and Red C methodology but confirmation across all these polls that there have been no
major changes in voter intention at the national level. Including Don't Knows and Won't
vote makes little difference, again there is very little change over the three months of
campaigning.
But to warn against Yes complacency. The 1995 Divorce referendum was almost lost despite a
strong showing at start when the Yes vote fell sharply in the last days of the campaign.
That said the fall was between the polls before the campaign started with a big drop
during the campaign itself. The three B&A polls above are all taken with the campaigns
underway. There does seems to have been a small drop before the campaign started as
recorded in the MRBI and Red C January polls. Divorce data from the Irish Political
Ephemera page
We are going to move on to looking at the B&A/ST data on regional voting intentions & how
much can be said about the data on voting intention by age, gender, 'social class' and
political party support. This is complex so you may want to have a look at what we wrote
comparing their previous two polls where we discuss the issues around doing this, in
particular then increase in the margin of error.
The change in voting intentions by region from the 3 polls carried out by B&A/Sunday
Times, February to April show the urban V rural divide collapsing. In other words the Yes
falls in Dublin & other urban areas but this fall is balanced by a No fall in rural areas
so that there is no overall change of significance.
Yes has shifted from being well ahead in Dublin & other urban areas to being well ahead
everywhere
Even in Connacht/Ulster Yes is now 13% ahead
The reduced Dublin Yes lead is still 27% ahead
Overall the Rural Yes is now 14% ahead, it was 1% behind back in February
With all the sub group discussions its important to keep in mind that as group size
decreases the margin of error increases substantially.
When to look at this poll by region, gender & social class we see strong variations here
as with the previous two B&A polls but no significant movement between these polls. Repeal
the 8th remains the choice of every group except the over 55s which are Save the 8th by
4%, really with the margin of error included this makes them 50:50.
Another reminder that because these sub populations are small when looking at the raw B&A
tables its important to keep an eye on sample size as what looks like a change may not be
when margin of error for small sample is considered. For instance sequentially across the
3 polls it looks like the under 35s No vote goes from 25 -> 18 -> 23 but a lot of this may
be because the margin of error for that sub sample size would be plus/minus 6%. So the
first month drop is real but the subsequent rise may not be. On the other hand the under
35 Yes at 59% and No at 23% is a difference of 36%, many times the margin of error, so its
real.
Keeping the margin of error in mind
-Yes does better than average with under 35s & ABC1s
- No does better than average with over 55s & C2DEs but pensioners are probably tilting
that C2DE average towards No because of the over 55 effect. C2DEs are still voting Yes by
a margin of 6%
A word of warning for Together 4 for Yes - when asked if they would vote in a general
election (p31) 79% of the over 55s will definitely vote as against 60% of the under 34s.
If the Yes vote falls and the referendum was close that higher over 55 turnout could
defeat repeal the 8th. But of course intention to vote in an election isn't the same as
intention to vote in a referendum - anarchists vote in referendum only rarely if at all in
elections, see https://www.wsm.ie/elections for why
Finally we look at the ST/BA poll and the data on how the vote breaks down by political
party. And here we see the reason for Fianna Fails self destructive opportunism of trying
to ride both horses at once, their voters are split 50:50, 41:42 to be precise. Rural
Fianna Fail will want to be visibly No but that could spell the doom for urban Fianna Fail
who already face decimation from the growing urban Sinn Fein vote that is hovering up what
used to be the Fianna Fail youth vote/
All the other parties have far more Yes voters, the lead of Yes over No for each of the
major parties is
Fine Gael 24%
Labour 30%
Sinn Fein 30%
Of these Labour & Sinn Fein are both actively campaigning for Repeal while Fine Gael is
halfhearted with little on the ground activity and an intended spend that is a fraction of
Together for Yes. We may have forced the establishment to call a referendum but they
certainly do not intend to win it for us, indeed a victory will be a defeat for the spot
of politics of control they held for the last 90 years. And not too soon.
The Irish Times with MRBI published an opinion poll on the Repeal the 8th referendum 20th
April that once more showed a strong Yes lead and a static No. It is the 6th poll of the
year so we thought it useful to generate a side by side comparison of the Yes & No votes
for all 6. The polls were carried out by MRBI, Red C and Behaviour & Attitudes.
20/April IT/MRBI
poll has
Yes 47%
No 28%
Don't Know 20%
Won't vote 3%
With undecided excluded that come down to
63% Yes
to
37% No
With the chart above we eliminated undecided from all 6 polls.
Other significant finds from this mornings poll included;
A narrow majority of Fianna Fail votes favour repeal
39% Yes
37% No
This is very bad news for No campaigns as it suggests there will be no further opportunism
from Fianna Fail TDs who might otherwise think campaigning for a No would damage their
Fine Gael or Sinn Fein rivals. This is now only the case in some rural areas and the
advantage would be small but the Fianna Fail party nationally would have to be conferenced
that any further prominent opportunism from rural Tis would further damage their chances
of an urban recovery rather than the permanent loss of seats to Sinn Fein. Fianna Fail did
a press stunt yesterday where several party members appeared with a Together for Yes
banner, cynically we suspect this was because they were forwarned of todays poll showing
No had failed to gain.
Most importantly the Yes vote appears to be very very solid with 80% of Repeal voters
saying they would never change their mind. Its probable the sheer toxicity and
disinformation of the No campaign as well as the saturation coverage in terms of
billboards and online ads has backfired and solidified the Yes vote.
Also of great significance undecideds are leaning 2:1 towards Repeal - this is unusual in
a referendum where the assumption is that a majority of undecided would opt for the status
quo and vote no.
If the two findings above are accurate the No campaign has no chance of winning on polling
day. This along with their failure to significantly increase their share of the vote since
February suggests outside of some major Yes mishap it's over for them.
In this MRBI poll voters also reported a high degree of knowledge of post referendum
legislation - only 15% said they were unaware - and Repeal voters showed the highest level
of knowledge. This means the No strategy of fake claims and misleading posters has not
only failed but probably backfired and instead is motivating Yes voters and alienating
undecided's.
But while there are strong grounds for optimism it's not over yet. Dangers include the
attempts by No to make the campaign bitter and nasty, particularly in Dublin, to try and
drive down turnout, particularly of younger voters. They probably hoped to provoke a
response in kind from the Yes campaign but it has stayed focused on compassion and women's
health.
The Irish Times headlined this as a slippage in the Yes vote in comparison with their
January poll, something that is present until undecided are excluded when the apparent
shift is then smaller than the margin of error. RED C showed a similar slippage between
their January and March polls which we discussed in depth at
https://www.wsm.ie/c/repeal-8th-opinion-polls-analysis but at this point we'd acknowledge
that its likely there was a loss of soft Yes votes back then before there was significant
campaigning.
The weakest point for Yes remains the 12 week unrestricted access which is why No will
continue to try and centre that discussion and avoid the discussions being centred on
protecting womens health and fatal foetal abnormality. There the No vote is very soft
indeed, half of No voters in the B&A poll actually wanted abortion access in those cases,
meaning No could lose half their vote if protecting women health becomes the main issue
under discussion. The other half are the core 15% ‘let women die' - a figure that has
remained constant for the last few years.
From their messaging its clear that the No campaign recognise that they are not likely to
erode many Yes votes on the 12 week issue and the Irish Times poll confirms that. The
percentage saying 12 weeks goes too far (41%) is almost identical with the percentage
saying abortion is wrong and should not be more widely available. (40%). 56% said they had
reservations on 12 weeks but it was a reasonable compromise. Presumably a recognition that
there is no other way of providing abortion in the case of rape and that 12 weeks is the
current reality in Ireland because its the end of the period where the abortion pill can
be used. The abortion pill may be illegal right now but the reality is women are taking it
every week and that usage is increasing. Unless the state starts prosecuting women for its
use - and that would carry a 14 year jail sentence without repeal - women will continue to
use it regardless of the outcome of the referendum. Most voters want these women to be
able to access medical care with the risk of jail.
This mornings poll should have been the strongest by far figures for No campaign as they
were organised to campaign earlier and are spending huge amounts on billboards & ads while
#Together4Yes was still in the process of raising funds. Two weeks back No spokespeople on
Twitter were crowing that the Yes campaign was nowhere to be seen - and this poll would
have been collected in that period. Last week saw the enormous crowdfunding drive by
Together for Yes with 550,000 being raised through over 10,000 small donations, many with
names and indeed moving stories attached. Just who is funding the No campaign on the other
hand is murky and unclear - its widely understood that huge quantities of dollars have
flowed in over the last years because extreme US christian groups see Ireland as a key
battleground in their ‘crusade'.
What has also been striking on Twitter is that the No canvass groups remain smaller and
appear to have become less frequent, particularly in Dublin while the Together for Yes
canvass groups have appeared everywhere, including rural areas that didn't see Marriage
Equality canvassing and some of the groups are enormous. We've seen photos of canvass
groups in individual Dublin constituencies that have had 50-70 people on them. We suspect
the early start of the No campaign and the enormous amount of money they are spending on
achieving saturation advertising everywhere from billboards to children's computer games
has really motivated Repealers to donate and canvass. A massive rebellion against the
hated 8th amendment is very much in full swing and the status quo looks like its going
down to a major defeat, and not just in the cities.
These are the 4 polls carried out since Repeal 8th referendum was declared. They show the
impact of campaigning, mostly of the No side as Together for Yes got underway later. So
both anti-choice groups, Save the 8th and Love Both have had no real impact on voters
despite the enormous spend on posters, billboards & online ads.
Incidentally we have seek the claim that todays MRBI poll was the first time the Yes vote
when don't know are included fell below 50%. This claim is false, the yes vote was at 49%
for both the B&A polls here, ie for the period of the campaign it has remained just under
50% for all but one poll.
There was also a poll in the Daily Mail but because of the loaded way the question was
phrased (opposite) to include unrestricted access to 12 weeksthis means its not comparable
with these other polls.
That Daily Mail question is not standard. In fact its what reputable polling companies
have been using to see how soft the Yes vote is.
Behaviour & Attitudes for instance ask how people intend to vote on the 8th as one
question and what their attitude to 12 weeks as a follow on - in their April poll 47% are
for Repeal but only 43% in favour of 12 weeks, the gap showing how important the question
asked is.
To combine the two isn't just a loaded question, its most of the basis of the No campaign.
It's why reputable polling companies also have a soft No question about protecting health
& cases where foetus will not survive (FFA). So if you are paying for a poll and the
question you pay for is set up as the Daily Mail poll was then in effect you are paying
for a result. If NO canvassing teams are demoralised it might fool them to have some hope
to keep going
In that context the Daily Mail reported
Yes 46%
No 31%
Don't Know 16%
Not Say 8%
Even in that context though when you account for margin of error and compare with their
previous poll only this is the 7th poll to show the No campaign has had no significant impact
The polls to date
Pre-campaign
MRBI January -
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/clear-majority-backs-abortion-on-request-up-to-12-weeks-poll-shows-1.3368816
Red C January -
https://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/SBP-Jan-2018-Poll-Report-GE16.pdf
Polls during campaign
B&A February - http://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Report.pdf
B&A March - http://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J.8878-Sunday-Times-March-2018-Report.pdf
Red C March -
http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/SBP-March-2018-Poll-Report-GE16.pdf
MRBI April -
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/irish-times-poll-public-favour-repeal-of-eighth-despite-slip-in-support-1.3467503
with a nice viewer of the data at https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll
B&A April - http://banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/J.9001-Sunday-Times-April-2018-Report.pdf
Red C April -
http://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/SBP-April-2018-Poll-Report-GE16.pdf
Author: Andrew N Flood
https://wsm.ie/c/polls-yes-repeal-referendum
_________________________________________
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