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(en) Anarkismo.net: Koreas, ongoing conflict and belligerence incomplete by Bruno Lima Rocha (pt) [machine translation]

Date Wed, 08 May 2013 14:15:12 +0300

The conflict between the two Koreas is a stay of the Cold War period that remain in the present day, to leave the intersection in two arenas simultaneously, the northern half must continue pressing Seoul and Washington. ---- By completing sixtieth anniversary of the end of the Korean War, the longest conflict the planet has exceeded the period of bipolarity as a landmark permanent Cold War in Asia. The Korean peninsula is the area of â âgreatest concentration of troops professionals in the world and lives in a state of war, with a level of high alert since the split into two countries. In this context, both companies were recreated within a logic of urban modernization. For the northern half of the warfighting capability is essential as deterrent factor of a war of conquest of the South and the consequent liquidation of the regime and, consequently, this model of society.

This is the fundamental reason for the escalation of belligerent threats. As heir and grandson of the patron saint of the country, Kim Il-sung, the current president Kim Jong-un needs of the conflict environment but do not want war.

If the confrontation will occur, perhaps North Korea not resist even a week on airstrikes and therefore requires some tactical advantage. This would be the mobility of its nuclear missile launchers, which appear with a certain constancy in military maneuvers quite ostentatious. These mobile launchers (engaged in military trucks from six to eight axes) can launch missiles at distant targets up to 10,000 kms. Japan and some U.S. bases are likely targets. Seoul, in case of attack, there could be almost completely destroyed. Only this possibility points to some possible responses by the South Koreans, among them one of fulminant type.

One possibility is that the U.S. ally accepted a ceasefire, bringing the political will of the new North Korean ruler to stay well prove to be able to exercise a strong executive power in the face of contemporary generals of his grandfather, the founder of the country. Simultaneously, Pyongyang intends to freeze the projections of U.S. power on the existence of a state that had been satellite of the Soviet Union and China. Today the North Korean society survives relief, issuing citizens emigrated economic resources, as well as some state enterprises, the majority belonging to the armed forces of the country. The old geopolitics of the planet in the previous period, still exists close relationship between Beijing and Pyongyang, both through aid, trade, and the free flow of goods and goods that cross the border dry 1600 kms between the two countries.

Part of South Korea in the event of a conflict with the northern half of the peninsula, there would be a chance to unify the country, double the land area under the jurisdiction of Seoul and eventually raise himself to the status of regional power also in military arena. With this possible Korean unit, there would be a rise in spending power and a similar reality of post-unification Germany.

It is indeed an escalation of tension and increase of military maneuvers, containment is never full. The probability of war, though small, is always real.

Bruno Lima Rocha

Article originally published in the biweekly newspaper "Journalism B", in Porto Alegre, editing the 2nd half of April 2013
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