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(en) Anarkismo.net: Venezuela, The legacy of Chávez and the Bolivarian crossroads by Bruno Lima Rocha (pt) [machine translation]

Date Sun, 10 Mar 2013 10:36:21 +0200

Phenomena such as the popular marea roja when the people came out to take to the streets of Caracas are the barometer of acceptance and coverage of the social actions of the Chavez government. Any decline in these policies will not be accepted by the majority. -- It is impossible to think of a Venezuela after Hugo Chavez's death without realizing that his legacy symbolic balizará all. Before being put in place public policies of protection, known as social missions (like Boves, Sucre, Bolivar and Miranda), the oil royalties concentrated 80% of GDP in less than 20% of the population. After thirteen years of government and the country's poorest live better and become perennial electoral reservation. Changed the state and society. ---- Changed the state and society through the Chavista method, which brings the contradiction.

Bet on the constitutionality possible, although there originally entered politics by force. The election of 1998 transformed the former president in February 1992 coup which was a national hero. Since then Chavez faced two coups (and lockout April 2002 tanker at the turn of the year) and some elections (four presidential) and some referendums.

In late warlord urn won almost everything, and the last to win without actually taking possession. He delivered more than 11pontos the governor of Miranda, Enrique Capriles. Interned in Cuba for cancer treatment almost terminally ill, his deputy and political heir indicated, Nicolás Maduro, came to take a provisional. Now, more than ever, the survival of the successor implies cohesion difficult Chavista party (PSUV) and the loyalty of senior military mandos. The risk is real turning point, but not soon.

The most likely Maduro meets the constitutional deadlines, call elections for president and win overwhelmingly. The opposition, or the opposition, are a rare blend of political corpses of oligarchic period (known as the Pact of Punto Fijo) and some rising stars such as Enrique Capriles still young, this also involved in previous plots.

The major problem for the continuity of the Bolivarian process is the internal Chavista. Anyone with contacts at the base of social movements, with alternative, community, indigenous movements, and afros, the tough neighborhoods of Caracas as the 23 de Enero and Petare zone, beyond the little class unionism there, you know the size of the ideological chasm . Political leadership is somewhat accustomed to democracy and internal relations depended primarily with Miraflores Palace, or next to Chavez himself. Without the charismatic leader, the medium term trend is fragmentation. Until Maduro be reelected worth the motto of Unity and Discipline. In half of its government, we will see what is social organization to carry forward the legacy of Chavez.

Bruno Lima Rocha

Related Link: http://estrategiaeanalise.com.br
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