A-Infos (en) wsm.ie: Repeal vote still too close to call when likely Don't Know to No taken into account

The referendum to remove the clause in the constitution that limits what medical care, 
including abortion, women in Ireland can access approaches at the end of this month. With 
another poll appearing this morning we have updated our graph of how that May 25th vote 
would look IF the polling companies had a similar margin as they had for the Marriage 
Equality referendum a couple of years back. As you can see they suggest if nothing changes 
the result of the May 25th, Repeal vote will be too close to call until the count on the 
26th. ---- We are going to post what the polls actually say in the first comment to this 
story, all the actual polls show Repeal passing. This graphic isn't a scientific 
prediction, simply a warning that in reality the result may be too closed to call and so 
every effort made in the remaining 3 weeks will matter. In 1995 Divorce passed by a tiny 
margin of votes, about one per ballot box - something similar is possible this time too.

This latest poll is from the Sunday Independent and carried out by KMB. It shows an 
increase in the No vote. Their raw numbers were:
Yes 45%
No 34%
Don't Know 18%
No response 4%

In the 2015 Marriage Equality referendum there was a sharp drop in the last week with many 
Don't Knows switching to No. There were 4 polls published the weekend before the vote by 
same range of companies polling this time around and we calculated the error made in each 
companies poll then and applied to the poll data for the same company this time around. 
KMB were pretty close, so their adjustment is small. This is explained in more detail in 
our first piece on this topic, below

This poll would appear to indicate that the No method of spending an enormous amount on 
online advertising, billboards and posters to spread misleading fear-based messaging is 
having an impact. We estimate that while Yes have 5 or more times as many volunteers No 
has 10 or more times the cash. Whereas the source of Yes funds is pretty transparent very 
little is known as to where 95% of the No spend is coming from, speculation is a lot is 
coming from outside the country in contravention of the rather toothless SIPO rules which 
are powerless to prevent online ads being placed from elsewhere.

The question is what will turn out to be more persuasive over the next 3 weeks, the Yes 
strength of personal contact through canvassing or the No strength of a deluge of online 
and offline paid advertising. One thing that can be said is Facebook's failure to 
introduce meaningful ad transparency is in danger of deciding another vote.

We can also see the problem with referendum campaigns coming through - by their nature 
they are short term attempts to convince people to come over to a side rather than to 
change fundamental attitudes. The huge age discrepancy between Yes & No illustrates how 
central the tactic of playing on deep-seated prejudices against women are for the No 
campaign. Such prejudices have shifted substantially for most younger voters - there is 
almost an opposed pre & post 1960s feminism vote at that level, something that can also be 
observed in the Trump and Brexit votes.

BTW we've seen anti-choice spokespeople claim this result reflects how people felt about 
'who won' the Late Late Repeal show. This isn't possible as that broadcast was 27th and 
this polling was carried out from April 18 to 30th, i.e. 3/4 before that broadcast.

Repeal the 8th isn't in the bag yet - a warning from Marriage equality poll comparisons - 
April 30th story

Today we are warning that Repeal the eighth vote can't be assumed to be already won even 
through No have failed to increase their vote. If the same last week shift comes into play 
as for Marriage Equality & Divorce we are looking at a result to close to call. We are 
going to explain why we are saying this in detail using polling figures from Marriage 
Equality and this campaign. Its going to get a little scary as we go through these but 
there is hope at the end.

The 1995 Divorce referendum looked to be in the bag from advance polls with a 2:1 lead but 
on the day was only narrowly carried 50.3% Yes to 49.7% No. A result so close that its 
said the difference was only one vote per polling box in the country. It appears with 
Divorce that either the polling companies had got it wrong or more likely a major drop in 
the Yes vote happened in the last 10 days. This was too long ago to draw detailed 
parallels between polling but we can do just this with the Marriage Equality polls.

Marriage Equality also saw a sharp drop in last week. There were 4 polls published a 
weekend before by the same range of companies polling this time around - the top left 
table shows each poll and then actual result first for raw data, then with Don't Knows 
excluded, as you can see all 4 polls overestimated the share of Yes by 7 to 9%.

This table below compares each companies poll with the actual result & then calculates how 
much of Don't Know became No and in the two cases where that was over 100% how much of the 
Yes vote became No.

Marriage equality as of May 16/17	SBP/RedC 11-13	SI/MB 2-15	ST/B&A 1-11	
IT/MRBI 13-14 	RESULT
Yes	67	53	63	58 	62
No	27	24	26	25 	38
Don't Know	6	23	11	17       	
Excluded removed     	
Yes	71	69	71	70 	62
No	29	31	29	30 	38

 SBP/RedC	SI/MB	ST/B&A	IT/MRBI
Shift	N+6 Y-5	N+14 Y+9	N+12 Y-1	
Y+13 Y+4
Ratio of transfer	100% +8%	61%	100% +2%	76%

Using these percentages in the bottom table we recalculate all the polls by applying the 
error ratios for each company from the Marriage Equality referendum to each of their polls 
on the Repeal the 8th vote. IF (ands its a big IF) it was same error this time around the 
referendum would only narrowly be carried in the B&A poll and narrowly defeated according 
to both MRBI and Red C polls.

 MRBI Jan	Red C Jan	B&A Feb	B&A March	Red C March	MRBI April	ST/B&A April Red C April
Yes	60	55	48	48	52	54	46	51
No	40	45	52	52	48	46	54	49
Adjusted figures if the polls are as far out on Repeal as they were for Marriage Equality

To be very clear this is not a prediction, simply a warning that we can't be complacent 
(who is!). The campaigns are very different in intensity & length and there is some 
evidence in B&A polling that the Don't Knows are splitting to Yes.

One major difference is that the No campaign have ran a very intense campaign over months 
with a huge spend on misleading ads since February. Despite this the polls show a failure 
to increase the No vote at all. All the variation in the polls of the last 3 months have 
between polling companies. For each company their polls across the months show no change 
when you account for the 3% margin of error.

But the No campaign is not focused on convincing additional voters to No but in trying to 
make the referendum so nasty and confusing that undecided & Soft Yes voters will stay at 
home or, our of fear, opt for the status quo.  This would explain the often bizarre nature 
of the No campaign, their failure to discourage aggression, lying and indeed the active 
encouragement and even participation of their spokes people in such tactics. Disengagement 
and fear helps them, in 1983 only 54% of the population voted in the 8th amendment 
referendum which saw similar tactic and worse.

But this may not work this time around. Much has changed in Ireland, in particular rural 
areas, and polls indicate that the Yes voters are quite determined and sure of their 
understanding of issue. 80% of Repeal voters say they would never change their mind in the 
last MRBI poll

Together for Yes is already canvassing areas that never had organised canvass teams during 
the Marriage equality referendum. Its expected that as May 25th approaches the Yes canvass 
will substantially grow in size & scope, as happened with Marriage Equality. Canvassing is 
something you can do that will make a difference , you can sign up for. Together for Yes 
have already distributed three times as many Yes posters as were distributed during entire 
Marriage equality campaign - in general you can say Together for Yes learned from and then 
built on the Marriage Equality ref experience. Something that is of course also true of 
the No side, in that case its the same organisations and individuals running this campaign 
as who campaigned against Marriage equality (and indeed sex education, contraception and 
divorce, if they have been around long enough).

All the polls so far were from the period before Marriage Equality had even really 
launched but the No campaign has been in full swing since February. So it may be we will 
see the Yes vote increase and No vote decrease in the next set of polls.

So again this scary comparison with the Marriage Equality polls in NOT a prediction but 
simply a warning that the strong and consistent Yes lead does not mean Repeal is already 
in the bag, its very much up to YOU to be part of a Together for Yes win by talking to 
friends, fellow workers and families and by getting formally involved in canvassing and 
other work.  As the referendum vote approaches people will pay more and more attention to 
whats said and written, particularly in final days. So its not too late to get involved, 
indeed we expect that the early starters will really appreciate new faces and new energy 
in helping Yes win on the 25th.

Subject: Repeal 8th
Topics: Gender
Geography: National
Source: Opinion
Type: Analysis
Author: Andrew N Flood

https://wsm.ie/c/repeal-8th-warning-marriage-equality-poll-comparison
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